—
The violence in the Middle East sparked on October 7, 2023, has now continued for a year and shows little sign of ending. The Israeli military assault on Gaza, initially begun in response to the Hamas attacks in Israel that killed 767 civilians and 376 security personnel, continues to wreak devastation on Palestinians in Gaza. The Gaza war also continues to fuel violence elsewhere in the Middle East, most recently in Lebanon, that may escalate into a wider regional war.
Ending the Israeli campaign in Gaza would bring relief to the people suffering there and might lower the risks of a larger conflict. The United States, as Israel’s chief supporter, could play an important role in ending the war.
The War in Gaza
Israeli military operations in Gaza began first with bombing on October 7 and then a ground invasion of Gaza on October 27, 2023. After establishing control of much of Gaza, Israel began in 2024 to reduce its military presence on the ground. Today a relatively limited number of troops are in the Palestinian territory. Some of them are stationed across the middle of Gaza to control the residents’ movements. Low-level fighting and bombing continue.
While overt violence may have diminished in Gaza, however, residents face an equal if not greater threat: hunger. The war has disrupted ordinary economic life and severely limited humanitarian aid to the territory.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the international organization that monitors food crises, warned in March 2024 of famine striking first northern and then southern Gaza. An updated IPC assessment in late June refrained from declaring famine (improved access to aid may have had a positive impact) but identified almost all of Gaza’s residents as lacking adequate access to food. The IPC estimated almost half a million people, or over a fifth of Gaza’s population, face catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity, which means starvation. Famine remains a real danger.
Eman Abu Jaljum, who lives in northern Gaza, has described her family as “living in a famine that is more extreme than ever before.” Meat, fresh vegetables, and other basic food supplies are scarce and high priced. “Before some simple things were available,” Abu Jaljum comments, “but now there’s barely anything.” Iyad al-Sapti, a resident of Gaza City, told New York Times reporters in June that he had not been able to buy a bag of flour in almost two months.
Even where food is available, other shortages create problems. Nizar Hammad, who lives in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, says he can buy staples such as bread, rice, and lentils. The challenge for Hammad, who shelters along with his family in a tent, is cooking: “The biggest suffering is preparing the food itself, because you do not have cooking gas.” Firewood is similarly hard to get.
Some Palestinian children in Gaza have reportedly died from malnutrition and lack of healthcare. A group of experts affiliated with the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights identified 10-year-old Yazan Al Kafarneh and a 2-month old baby (name not given) as having died in northern Gaza in the winter. Six-month-old Fayez Ataya, 13-year-old Abdulqader Al-Serhi, and 9-year-old Ahmad Abu Reida reportedly died in central and southern Gaza in the spring.
Compounding food shortages are other consequences of the war. The territory’s sanitation system has been destroyed and its healthcare system is close to collapse. Dr. Jean-Francois Corty, the president of the NGO Doctors of the World, which works in Gaza, comments “most [Gaza] hospitals are no longer functional, there are only between 5 and 10 left, and they are saturated with patients…they're running out of everything – fuel for their generators, medicines and medical and surgical equipment."
Also suffering in Gaza are hostages captured by Hamas during the October 7 attacks. Of the 251 people originally captured, many have been freed over the past year, with 105 being freed in November 2023 as part of a ceasefire and prisoner-exchange deal between Israel and Hamas. Others have died in captivity. Ninety-seven people captured on October 7, as well as others captured by Hamas, remain unaccounted for in Gaza.
The Gaza Death Toll
The Gaza Health Ministry reported in late September that 41,586 people had been killed in Gaza since the Israeli assault began. Such estimates have been controversial throughout the war. Because the Health Ministry answers to Hamas (or at least did before the current Israeli assault), it can be regarded as biased. The Health Ministry estimates also do not distinguish between civilians and Hamas combatants. Further, simply gathering accurate information amid the chaos of war is difficult for officials at hospitals and morgues strained to their limit.
Because the precise death toll in Gaza is uncertain, the real number may be lower than Health Ministry estimates—but it may also be higher. An argument for a higher death toll than that reported by the Health Ministry was made by three academics in a letter to the medical journal The Lancet. The authors argued that when likely deaths indirectly caused by wartime effects such as disruptions to food supplies and healthcare are considered, the Gaza death toll might be as high as 186,000 dead.
Such estimates are speculative and controversial, but they received support from Dr. Corty of Doctors of the World. Corty comments, "If you add those who are likely to die of malnutrition or as a result of wounds inflicted by Israeli bombardments in the weeks and months to come, because of the risks of superinfection and because their pathology will be treated late, then yes, the figure of 186,000 deaths mentioned in The Lancet is credible."
Another estimate of Gaza war dead has come from a source unlikely to have a pro-Palestinian bias, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In May, Netanyahu commented "Fourteen thousand have been killed, combatants, and probably around 16,000 civilians have been killed." This total of about 30,000 killed was lower than the Gaza Health Ministry estimate at the time of about 35,000 dead, but not dramatically so.
If the total deaths reported by the Health Ministry are approximately correct and, in keeping with Netanyahu’s estimate, slightly more than half the dead are civilians, then roughly 20,000 civilians have been killed in Gaza to date. This number is a plausible, conservative estimate of the civilian death toll—and the actual toll may ultimately prove to be much higher.
War in the Middle East
Violence related to the Gaza war has spiked elsewhere in the Middle East over the past year: in the West Bank, in the Red Sea close to Yemen, and in clashes between Israel and other nations such as Lebanon and Iran.
Since October 7, Israeli settlers in the West Bank have frequently attacked Palestinians while Israeli security forces have carried out near-daily raids in the territory. During two of the larger raids during the summer, an estimated 16 people in the West Bank, along with one Israeli soldier, were killed.
Outside Israel and Palestine, the current conflict spilled over into Iran in July when an Israeli airstrike killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Meanwhile, at the end of September another pro-Palestinian militant group, the Yemen-based Houthis, launched missiles at the Israeli city of Tel Aviv and US warships in the Red Sea. The missiles were intercepted by Israeli and US forces. Israel then retaliated by bombing Yemen, in a strike the Houthis say killed four people.
The most significant regional escalation related to the Gaza war has been the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, centered around Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollah forces in Lebanon have been regularly firing on Israel since October 7, with Israeli forces responding in kind. Tens of thousands of people in both Lebanon and Israel have been forced to relocate because of the cross-border fighting.
A rocket attack in July hit Israeli territory and killed 12 children. Israel blames Hezbollah for the attack, although the group denies responsibility. In retaliation, the Israelis bombed Lebanon, killing a Hezbollah commander and others.
Israeli forces have stepped up their campaign against Hezbollah in recent months, perhaps to preempt Hezbollah attacks or to weaken the organization sufficiently to allow displaced Israelis to return home, or both. In September, the Israelis detonated explosives planted in pagers and two-way radios used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon. These explosions killed not only Hezbollah members but others, including a 9-year-old girl.
The Israeli military followed these operations with conventional bombing of southern Lebanon, including the capital of Beirut. Lebanon’s health minister reported on September 28 that over 1,000 people, including more than 150 women and 80 children, have been killed in the Israeli bombing. Among those killed by the Israeli bombing of Lebanon was Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s top leader.
The Israelis seem determined to continue attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Herzi Halevi, Israel’s military chief of staff, has said “We need to keep hitting Hezbollah hard.” Hezbollah, for its part, has continued to fire rockets into Israel.
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict took a dramatic turn on October 1, when Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. This invasion may be aimed at destroying or weakening Hezbollah’s presence in the area close to Israel’s border. Later that same day, Iran launched a barrage of almost 200 missiles at Israel, apparently in retaliation for the Israeli killings of Haniyeh, Nasrallah, and an Iranian commander who was killed alongside Nasrallah. The one confirmed death from the Iranian missile strike was a Palestinian man in the West Bank.
Seeking an End to the War
The Israelis suffered a horrifying injustice a year ago, during the October 7 attacks. The Israeli government’s response to Hamas’ attacks, however, has been grotesquely disproportionate. Israel’s campaign in Gaza has likely killed tens of thousands of civilians over the last year while causing great suffering to many more. The campaign in Lebanon has also led to death and suffering for the civilian population, which will likely worsen as that campaign continues and escalates.
Defenders of Israeli policy might argue such losses are just a regrettable but inevitable part of a military campaign. They might also argue that Hamas and Hezbollah could end the civilian suffering by not operating so close to civilians or simply by surrendering. These arguments are unconvincing, however.
Fighting an adversary who uses immoral methods, such as deliberately killing civilians or stationing militants and weapons amid civilian populations, does not justify a response that causes the degree of suffering Israeli military operations have caused since October 7.
To put it in smaller-scale terms, if a murderer tries to evade capture by hiding in the middle of a huge crowd, security forces are not therefore justified in repeatedly firing guns into the crowd until the murderer is killed or surrenders. In such a situation, most of us would not accept the argument that the resulting death and injury of innocent bystanders should be written off as simply the murderer’s fault for hiding in the crowd.
The civilian death and suffering caused by the Israeli campaigns are also hard to justify given the improbability of such campaigns achieving any worthwhile lasting result. Netanyahu and his advisors seem to think they can somehow definitively “defeat” militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah by military means. Given how long Israel has been fighting both groups, as well as militant pro-Palestinian groups generally, though, a decisive victory is unlikely.
Israel has fought wars against militants in Gaza and Lebanon before, and they did not prevent the October 7 attacks. The current war will probably not prevent future attacks on Israel from militant groups, either. Measured against a dubious long-term goal, the costs of the present campaign seem especially cruel and wasteful.
Rather than pursue the current military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon, the Israeli government should end these campaigns, allow unfettered humanitarian access to Gaza, and shift toward a defensive stance that fortifies Israel’s borders against any repetition of the October 7 attacks. In return for an end to their military campaigns (and perhaps a further exchange of prisoners), Israel should request Hamas release the remaining hostages.
The United States, as Israel’s leading supporter, could play an important role in moving Israel towards such a policy by making further military support conditional on an end to the war. At present, however, the Biden administration does not seem likely to exert such an influence: this past summer, the United States approved $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel. Neither a future Harris nor Trump administration seem likely to limit military support for Israel either, absent significant political pressure.
Meaningful efforts to alter US policy toward Israel will probably have to wait until US elections are over. After the elections, when Congress returns to Washington on November 12, would be a good time for peace activists to make a push for ending the Israeli military campaigns.
A promising first step would be for Congress to adopt the resolution of disapproval introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt) that would block sales of offensive weapons to Israel. US citizens can contact their senators and representatives to urge them to support this resolution.
Even before the elections, Americans can contact the Biden administration by phone, at 202-456-1111, or email to urge an end to military support for Israel unless Israel ends its current campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon.
Those interested in supporting organizations that help Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere might consider donating to United Palestinian Appeal, Anera, and Islamic Relief USA. Islamic Relief USA also works to help people in Lebanon.
Continuing the current Israeli military campaigns will only extend and escalate the violence begun on October 7. These wars need to end.
Comments